Who Wins From the Election: Florida Owners Gain, County Budgets Pay

1. Washington: divided government changes the leverage, not the law

What changed. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, by network projections built on Associated Press data [2][3]. The president keeps the veto. A bill that passes both chambers is presented to the president and becomes law if he signs it, if he leaves it unsigned for 10 days (Sundays excepted) while Congress is in session, or if he vetoes it and two-thirds of each chamber vote to override [7]. The new Congress convenes in January [4].

Who wins, who pays. Anyone relying on current federal law gains stability. Our read (inference, not fact): with Congress and the White House split, major changes are likely to need some agreement between the parties, although legally a bill passed by both chambers becomes law by signature, by going unsigned for 10 days in session, or over a veto [7]. The pressure moves to must-pass spending bills.

How it works. H.R. 6500, the September stopgap, funds the government through Dec. 11, 2026, so the first deadline falls to the outgoing Congress [5]. The same bill carries the flood insurance program's authority to that date, and a lapse would bar new federal flood policies [5][6], which matters for any Florida home sale whose lender requires one. Since the 2022 and 2023 state property insurance reforms, 21 new companies have been approved to write Florida residential policies and no property insurer has been referred for insolvency since March 1, 2023, according to the Office of Insurance Regulation [29].

Our read (inference, not fact). For Florida businesses paid by federal agencies, the risk shifts from "will the law change" to "will the money arrive on time." Further short-term funding bills look more likely.

Watch. Dec. 11: whatever replaces H.R. 6500, or a lapse [5].

Ask your adviser: "Which of our revenues depend on a federal contract or grant that a short-term funding bill could delay?"

2. Selling a business: the tax rules after the election

What changed. The election itself did not change the cited tax provisions. The 2025 tax law (Pub. L. 119-21), signed July 4, 2025, has no expiration date for the individual rates topping out at 37%, the 20% deduction for pass-through business income, 100% bonus depreciation for property acquired after Jan. 19, 2025, or immediate expensing of domestic research costs [8]. It set the estate and gift exemption at $15 million per person for 2026, indexed for inflation after that [8]. These provisions stay law unless both chambers pass a change that the president signs, leaves unsigned for 10 days while Congress is in session, or vetoes and two-thirds of each chamber override [7].

Small-business stock, by acquisition date. For qualifying shares acquired after July 4, 2025, the 2025 tax law allows a 50% gain exclusion after three years, 75% after four and 100% after five, and raises the company gross-asset limit to $75 million [8]. The excludable gain per company is capped at the greater of a dollar limit or 10 times the taxpayer's basis in the shares [39]. The dollar limit is $15 million for shares acquired after July 4, 2025, indexed after 2026, and $10 million for shares acquired on or before that date, which keep the older five-year rule [8][39].

Who wins, who pays. Owners planning a sale, a gift or a recapitalization keep known rules. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the 2025 tax law adds $3.4 trillion to deficits over 2025-2034, not counting added interest costs or economic effects [31]. Florida high earners gain little from the state and local tax change: the $40,400 cap for 2026 shrinks by 30% of income above $505,000, never below $10,000, and returns to $10,000 for everyone in 2030 [8].

Our read (inference, not fact). With no state tax on residents' personal income [42], Florida's advantage for top earners over high-tax states looks essentially unchanged by the 2025 tax law. Major tax changes are politically difficult before the 2028 election, though not impossible. A sale that pays out over several years, or a gift funded over time, runs into whatever Congress does after 2028.

Records to pull. Share acquisition dates and basis for each class of stock; the company's gross assets at each issuance.

Watch. January 2029: the next presidential term begins, after the 2028 election of the president and Congress [4].

Ask your adviser: "If our sale closes in 2027 or pays out after 2028, which rules apply to each block of shares and each payment?"

3. Importers: a refund to seek, a replacement tariff to price

What changed (baseline, before the election). On Feb. 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs [10]. The Court of International Trade ordered Customs to process affected entries without the emergency duties, and Customs handles the resulting refunds through a system called CAPE inside its ACE portal. Customs told the court that more than 330,000 importers had paid or deposited about $166 billion in these duties as of March 4, 2026, and that by Sept. 11 it had certified about $122 billion of refunds, with interest, and sent them to the Treasury for payment [11]. A temporary 10% tariff that followed under Section 122 of the Trade Act expired July 24, 2026; new tariffs of 10% or 12.5% (for some economies, net of existing duties) on goods from 60 economies took effect that day under Section 301 of the Trade Act [12] and are being challenged in the Court of International Trade [28].

Who wins, who pays. Eligible Florida importers of record may seek refunds, subject to Customs' processing; Customs certifies refunds and sends them to the Treasury for disbursement to the importer of record [11].

How it works. An importer submits a declaration through CAPE with electronic payment details on file; nothing is paid automatically [11]. Congress can hold hearings and shape agency budgets; changing tariff law takes a bill that passes both chambers and becomes law by signature, by going unsigned for 10 days in session, or over a veto [7].

Our read (inference, not fact). Buyers who paid higher prices downstream are not parties to the refund; whether any of it passes to them is a matter of contract. The refund is one-time cash, and the replacement tariffs mean the cost question is not closed.

Records to pull. Entry summaries showing emergency-tariff duties paid, by importer of record.

Watch. Customs' status reports to the Court of International Trade on certified and paid refunds [11].

Ask your adviser: "Did any business we own pay the emergency tariffs as importer of record, and has a refund been filed?"

4. Federal contractors: what a long stopgap does to Florida defense work

Baseline (not changed by the election). Florida ranked fourth among states in Defense Department spending in fiscal 2024, at $34.8 billion in contracts, grants and payroll, including $25.2 billion in contracts, also fourth [27]. Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center, on the Eastern Range, hosted a record 109 orbital launches in 2025 [26].

What the stopgap does. Under H.R. 6500, Defense Department money may not be used for new production of items not funded for production in fiscal 2026, for production-rate increases above fiscal 2026 levels, for programs that had no funding in fiscal 2026, or to start new multiyear procurements [5].

Who wins, who pays. Existing funded programs may continue within the stopgap's limits [5]. Firms whose 2027 revenue depends on a new program, a production ramp or a new multiyear award wait for a full-year bill.

Our read (inference, not fact). If full-year spending bills slip into 2027, the exposure falls on Florida suppliers tied to new starts and ramps, not on steady-state work. Landlords and service firms near Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Brevard and Panhandle bases would feel it only if those programs' hiring or spending in Florida is delayed.

Records to pull. For each federal contract: whether the next option, ramp or award is a new start under the stopgap rules, and its scheduled date.

Watch. Dec. 11: a full-year defense bill, or a further stopgap carrying the same limits [5].

Ask your adviser: "Which of our contracts or tenants depend on a new start or production increase that a stopgap would hold back?"

5. Physicians and professionals: practice income, the brokerage account, the rental and health coverage

Practice income. The 20% pass-through deduction begins to phase out for income from a "specified service" business, which includes health, law and accounting, once taxable income passes a threshold [15]. For 2026 the deduction for that income phases out between $403,500 and $553,500 of taxable income on a joint return, and between $201,750 and $276,750 on most other returns; above the top of the range none is allowed [38][8]. The 2025 tax law widened that range to $150,000 for joint filers and $75,000 for others [8].

The brokerage account. The 2025 tax law left in place the 0%, 15% and 20% rates on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends, and the separate 3.8% net investment income tax [40][41]. Changing them would take a bill that passes both chambers and becomes law by signature, by going unsigned for 10 days in session, or over a veto [7].

The rental. A rental condo or house is non-homestead property, so from Jan. 1, 2027 its assessment may rise no more than 5% a year instead of 10%; after a change of ownership or control, as defined by general law, it is reassessed at just value, and changes and improvements are assessed as general law provides [22]. Local tax rates can still change: Duval's local governments face an estimated $198.5 million first-year revenue loss at unchanged rates under Amendment 3 [21].

Health coverage before 65. The enhanced Affordable Care Act credits expired at the end of 2025 [14]. For 2026, Florida's 4,538,772 marketplace enrollees had an average premium of $806 a month before credits [13]. The 4,295,772 who received a credit paid an average $62 after it; the average across all enrollees, including the 243,000 who received none, was $106, up from $67 for 2025 [13]. Households above 400% of the poverty line now receive no credit and pay the full premium [14].

Who wins, who pays. If Congress restores the enhanced credits, Florida enrollees, marketplace insurers and hospitals gain and the Treasury pays. If not, enrollees above the cutoff carry the full premium.

Our read (inference, not fact). For a physician-owner who retires before 65, reported income each year can decide whether any credit applies, so the timing of a practice sale, a Roth conversion or a large capital gain is also a health-cost question. For a practice still operating with income above the range, entity choice turns on factors other than the pass-through deduction.

Records to pull. The last two years' taxable income against the 2026 range; projected income for each year between retirement and Medicare at 65; the rental's assessed and just value.

Watch. Dec. 15: last day to pick a marketplace plan for Jan. 1 coverage; open enrollment ends Jan. 15 [13]. Any year-end spending deal could carry the credits [5].

Ask your adviser: "If I stop practicing before 65, how does the income I report each year change what coverage costs me?"

6. Florida's own checkbook and its new vote count

What changed. The Legislature's Long-Range Financial Outlook projects general revenue surpluses of $7.1 billion in fiscal 2027-28 and $3.4 billion in 2028-29, then a deficit of just over $1.0 billion in 2029-30, with reserves of nearly $16.2 billion [16]. Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 50.01% to 48.72% in unofficial returns [1]. Republicans keep majorities in both chambers but appear to have lost their two-thirds majority in the House: the state's unofficial projection gives them 70 of 120 House seats and 25 of the 39 Senate seats decided, with one Senate seat vacant [18].

Who wins, who pays. Agencies, schools, road builders, land conservation and any tax cut compete for the surplus in the 2027 session. Donalds has proposed a dedicated state funding formula for fiscally constrained counties affected by Amendment 3 [19].

How it works. The Legislature writes the budget in a 60-day regular session that opens in March of odd-numbered years; the governor can veto individual appropriations, and an override takes two-thirds of each chamber [17]. Placing a constitutional amendment on the ballot takes three-fifths of each chamber, 72 of the House's 120 seats [17].

Our read (inference, not fact). House Republicans entered the election with 82 seats, plus four vacant seats they had held; the state's unofficial projection gives them 70 [18]. If that holds, they would be below 72, so a further property-tax amendment would need some Democratic votes in the House to reach the ballot. A forecast that turns from surplus to deficit tends to favor one-time spending over permanent tax cuts.

Watch. Nov. 17: organization session and statewide certification [17][1]. March 2, 2027: regular session opens [17].

Ask your adviser: "Which items on the 2027 state agenda touch the counties where we own property or run a business?"

7. New residents and homeowners: Amendment 3's residency test

What changed. Amendment 3 passed with 61.98% of the vote, above the 60% needed [43], in unofficial returns [20]. From 2027 the homestead exemption from non-school property taxes rises to $150,000, and to $250,000 in 2028 [22]. An owner "who had not maintained a permanent residence in this state as of December 31, 2026" instead gets $50,000 against non-school taxes for four years, then the full amount [22][21]. The school-tax exemption stays $25,000 [22].

The eligibility facts. The Dec. 31 test, as the enrolled text reads, asks whether the owner had a permanent residence in Florida on that date; on its face it does not require owning the home then, and the Legislature may set details by general law [22]. The homestead exemption itself still requires owning the property on Jan. 1 and making it the owner's permanent residence in good faith [23], and filing with the county property appraiser by March 1 [24]. State law lists factors the appraiser may weigh, none conclusive: a recorded declaration of domicile, a Florida driver license and surrender of other states' licenses, Florida voter registration at the address, Florida vehicle tags, the address on federal income tax returns, where children attend school, place of employment, where bank accounts are registered, and utility payments at the property [25]. A caution: a former state may apply its own residency or domicile rules for its income tax, so check that state's rules separately.

What the gap means. The difference between the full exemption and the $50,000 starter is $100,000 of assessed value in 2027 and $200,000 in 2028, not dollars of tax. Illustration (ours): at a combined non-school rate of 10 mills, $10 per $1,000, that is about $1,000 of tax in 2027 and about $2,000 in 2028. Actual rates vary by city, county and district.

Who wins, who pays. Otherwise eligible applicants who had a Florida permanent residence by year end may receive the full amount. Cities, counties and special districts lose revenue, and later arrivals wait four years for it. The Revenue Estimating Conference estimates local governments' lost collections at unchanged rates at $4.93 billion in fiscal 2027-28, $8.71 billion in 2028-29 and $11.83 billion a year at full effect [21].

Context (baseline). In IRS migration data for returns filed in 2022 and 2023, about 54,900 more tax returns moved into Florida than out, with a net $20.6 billion of adjusted gross income [30].

Our read (inference, not fact). A fixed date with a $100,000 difference in exempt value may affect the timing of some moves already planned; whether a household qualifies still turns on its residence, ownership and filing facts.

Records to pull. For each household member: license, voter registration, vehicle registration, the address on the 2026 federal return, and a recorded declaration of domicile if one was filed.

Watch. March 1, 2027: homestead filing deadline [24].

Ask your adviser: "What facts would establish our Florida permanent residence as of Dec. 31, and how do they interact with our former state's rules?"

8. Developers, landowners and family capital: the cap, the fees, the power

What changed. Beginning Jan. 1, 2027, assessments on non-homestead, non-agricultural property may rise no more than 5% a year instead of 10% [22]. After "a change of ownership or control, as defined by general law, including any change of ownership of a legal entity that owns the property," it is reassessed at just value on the next assessment date; changes and improvements are assessed as general law provides [22]. County and city property taxes are limited to listed uses, including public safety, infrastructure, natural resources, bonds and existing debt, and operations their governing bodies approve [22]. First-year losses at unchanged rates include Broward $535.7 million, Miami-Dade $524.7 million, Palm Beach $418.1 million, Hillsborough $342.0 million, Orange $270.2 million, Duval $198.5 million, Seminole $100.0 million and Osceola $87.3 million [21]. Separately, Florida's SB 484 (chapter 2026-65), signed May 7, 2026 and mostly effective July 1, 2026, requires the tariffs of public utilities, which under state law exclude city-owned utilities and electric cooperatives, to reasonably ensure that a customer with an anticipated monthly peak load of 50 megawatts or more at one site bears its full cost of service, and keeps local governments' planning and land development authority over such customers [32]; Florida Power & Light told regulators in October its rates already comply [33].

Who wins, who pays. Long-term holders of non-homestead property gain a tighter cap; a buyer after a qualifying change of ownership or control starts at just value. Local governments choose among cuts, rates and fees. Public utility tariffs must reasonably ensure that these large customers bear their full cost of service [32].

How it works. Florida law caps impact fee increases at 50% of the current rate, phased over two or four years, no more than once every four years, with 90 days' notice, unless a local government documents extraordinary circumstances and votes unanimously [34]. Federally, 100% expensing applies to equipment and other shorter-lived property, not building shells, and a separate, elective provision allows immediate expensing of the production portion of new factory buildings whose construction begins after Jan. 19, 2025 and before 2029 and that are placed in service before 2031; a building the owner leases to a tenant does not qualify [8]. The main wind and solar credit ends for projects placed in service after 2027 unless construction began by early July 2026 [8]. New Opportunity Zones are scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2027; Florida has 1,360 eligible tracts, of which up to 340, a quarter, may be designated, and under Treasury's schedule the governor's nomination window, opened July 1 for 90 days plus one possible 30-day extension, has closed [9][35].

Our read (inference, not fact). The cap favors holding over selling, since a qualifying change of ownership or control resets the assessment. Counties facing the largest losses may look at fees and charges; impact fee limits slow that route for new development but do not close it. For local bonds, what matters is the pledged revenue: debt repaid from property taxes is more exposed than debt repaid from utility or other revenues. Land with power access and zoning in place carries more certainty under SB 484 than land without it.

Records to pull. Current assessment and just value by parcel; the date of the last ownership or entity change; pending entitlements and the impact fee schedule in force; utility service status for any large-load site.

Watch. Treasury's certification of Florida's new Opportunity Zone map, scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2027 [9]; the Public Service Commission's review of FPL's filing [33]; the state-commissioned data center study, due July 1, 2027 [32].

Ask your adviser: "Which of our parcels or projects still need a local approval, and how would a sale, entity change or fee increase change their numbers?"