Oaktree Alpha
No. XIII · Week of October 19, 2026
Archived issue. Published October 19, 2026. Prices through October 16, 2026. Commentary reflects information available at publication and has not been updated.
Oaktree Alpha · No. XIII · Monday, October 19, 2026
Not a Florida story. A Florida habit: this is where much of the state’s money is working.
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The AI selloff is hedge funds unwinding
Hedge funds borrowed at a record, more than double their 2023 level, and crowded into the same AI stocks; losses are now forcing them to sell, so the Nasdaq 100 fell about 5.5% last week while 350 stocks in the S&P 500 rose. The AI bottleneck trade still holds, because the sellers had no choice and buyers still can’t get enough of NVIDIA’s chips or Micron’s memory. Bitcoin still holds too, slipping only about 1% in the same week, because AI agents bring crypto the users it never had, and tokenization, putting assets on crypto networks, will change how hedge funds get margin.
Jordi Visser, the macro investor whose weekly class we follow, says hedge funds’ borrowing will never come back. That changes who owns AI stocks. What AI needs keeps growing. The selling spread into credit and convertible bonds, and strong earnings stopped lifting prices. AI agent swarms, barely two months old, burn tokens, and tokens burn compute from NVIDIA and memory from Micron. Micron collected $12.7 billion in customer deposits last fiscal year, up from none, from buyers locking in supply for years. NVIDIA trades near 15 times next year’s earnings. Forced sellers set that price; demand did not.
The biggest risk is AI builders losing access to capital. A break in revenue growth at the AI labs, or GPU rental prices falling, would also change the AI answer. The first read is the big cloud spenders’ results, starting with Meta on Wednesday, Oct 21, and the pain could run to the midterms on Tuesday, Nov 3. Bitcoin should see no lasting rise until hedge fund selling steadies.
The Score
The list fell 6.0% on the week, and only Eli Lilly rose. The published list overlaps with the wider AI bottleneck book Oaktree follows and invests in. Since Issue I on Jul 20, the published list is up 8.3% and the wider book is down 3.8%, both equal-weight price returns; the Nasdaq 100 is up 2.0%.
| Company | Price | 1W | 1M | QTD | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly LLY | $1,257.03 | +6.6% | +10.5% | +8.6% | +17.0% | +53.4% |
| Alphabet GOOGL | $340.59 | -3.1% | -0.7% | -1.0% | +8.8% | +35.5% |
| NVIDIA NVDA | $214.13 | -6.6% | +0.1% | -6.2% | +14.8% | +17.8% |
| Micron MU | $878.84 | -14.6% | -5.2% | -17.5% | +208% | +334% |
| Marvell MRVL | $227.83 | -17.2% | -0.8% | -13.8% | +168% | +158% |
| Caterpillar CAT | $730.76 | -8.7% | -6.6% | -9.9% | +27.6% | +35.1% |
| Bitcoin BTC | $81,500 | -1.3% | +7.0% | -2.5% | -6.8% | -24.7% |
| Ether ETH | $2,419.92 | -2.6% | +0.1% | -9.8% | -18.4% | -37.9% |
Closes 2026-10-16 (Bitcoin and Ether: UTC day close). Price returns. Sources: Nasdaq, Coinbase.
Next Week
Lam Research and Texas Instruments report the same night as Meta; the Fed and Microsoft follow on Wednesday, Oct 28, and Amazon on Thursday, Oct 29. Watch Micron and Marvell, the hardest hit on the list: when good news lifts them again, the forced selling is done.
Full issue, the watch list and the track record
Opinion, not investment advice. Oaktree Reserve and Wesley Todd may hold positions in names discussed.
Also watched
| Company | Price | 1W | 1M | QTD | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel INTC | $89.85 | -14.2% | -11.1% | -25.3% | +144% | +144% |
| Corning GLW | $132.00 | -15.8% | -8.4% | -14.2% | +50.8% | +52.2% |
Closes 2026-10-16 (Bitcoin and Ether: UTC day close). Price returns. Sources: Nasdaq, Coinbase.
Last Week
The selling hit the most crowded AI names hardest, and good news didn’t help. The wider AI bottleneck book fell 11.7% on the week. The published list fell 6.0%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.52%.
Eli Lilly was the only winner on the list. It rose 6.59% to $1,257.03, the one name with nothing to do with the AI build.
Marvell was the biggest loser. Its networking chips are part of the AI build, and it fell 17.24% to $227.83.
Micron fell 14.59% to $878.84. Buyers are still prepaying for its memory years ahead.
NVIDIA fell 6.61% to $214.13. Caterpillar, the list’s power equipment maker, fell 8.71%. Alphabet fell 3.15%.
Bitcoin slipped 1.27% to $81,500.04 while the chip names fell, which is the point Jordi makes: it held while AI sold. Ether fell 2.63%.
Off the list, optical and server names fell sharply. Coherent fell 25.5%. Lumentum fell 25.31%. Both make optical parts, and the list holds the networking layer through Marvell. Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell 24.95%. Dell fell 22.92%. Both assemble servers, and the list holds the scarce chips and memory inside them through NVIDIA and Micron. Bloom Energy fell 21.1%; it makes on-site power, and the list holds power through Caterpillar. Arista Networks fell 18.34%; it makes network switches, a layer the list holds through Marvell. AMD fell 13.05%; the list holds chips through NVIDIA.
TSMC, the chip foundry we follow as the supply read, fell 8.98% in the same week it reported. Its third-quarter revenue was $46.72 billion, above its own guide.
ASML reported on Wednesday, Oct 14. It said planned supply for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and some customers already want to order for 2029 and 2030.
On the watch list, Intel fell 14.18% and Corning fell 15.75%.
The Read
Strong results with falling prices is what forced selling looks like. NVIDIA guided this quarter’s revenue to $108.0 billion, up from $96.2 billion last quarter, while its stock fell 6.61% last week. Its revenue guide pointed to growth even as the stock fell that week, because the people selling had to sell.
What a reader does with it: ask whether you are a forced seller. If you are not, Micron and Marvell shares cost less than they did a month ago, and the sellers’ deadline is not yours. The risk is time. The unwind can run into the big cloud spenders’ results and the midterms, so leave room for a slow month. The tell that it is over: good earnings lift prices again.
Next Week, in full
All week, Monday, Oct 19 to Friday, Oct 23: Fed quiet period ahead of its meeting; no Fed speeches scheduled.
Tuesday, Oct 20, 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing starts and building permits, September.
Tuesday, Oct 20, 10:00 a.m. ET: Pending home sales, September.
Tuesday, Oct 20, after the close (about 4:01 p.m. ET): Netflix third-quarter results.
Wednesday, Oct 21, after the close: Meta third-quarter results, call 4:30 p.m. ET. The first of the big cloud spenders to report.
Wednesday, Oct 21, after the close: Lam Research September-quarter results, call 5:00 p.m. ET. A read on chipmaking equipment demand.
Wednesday, Oct 21, after the close: Texas Instruments third-quarter results, call 4:30 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, Oct 21, after the close: Tesla third-quarter results, Q&A 5:30 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, Oct 21, after the close: IBM third-quarter results, call 5:00 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, Oct 21, after the US close: SAP third-quarter results (exact ET release time not confirmed).
Thursday, Oct 22, 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims.
Friday, Oct 23, 9:45 a.m. ET: S&P Global flash PMIs, October (date estimated).
Friday, Oct 23, 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final October (date estimated).
Looking ahead:
Tuesday, Oct 27, 8:30 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders, September.
Tuesday, Oct 27, 10:00 a.m. ET: New home sales, September.
Tuesday, Oct 27, after the close: NXP third-quarter results, call 4:30 p.m. ET.
Tuesday, Oct 27, evening ET (Wednesday, Oct 28 in Seoul): SK hynix third-quarter results.
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2:00 p.m. ET: Fed rate decision; press conference 2:30 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, Oct 28, after the close: Microsoft results, call 5:30 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, Oct 28, after the close: ServiceNow third-quarter results, call 5:00 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, Oct 28, after the close: Alphabet third-quarter results (date estimated, not confirmed by Alphabet).
Thursday, Oct 29, after the close: Amazon third-quarter results, call 5:00 p.m. ET.
Thursday, Oct 29, after the close: Intel third-quarter results, call 5:00 p.m. ET.
Monday, Nov 2, after the close: Apple fiscal fourth-quarter results, call 5:00 p.m. ET.
Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections.
Track record
Since Issue I (July 20, 2026), equal-weight price return: the wider AI bottleneck book Oaktree follows and invests in -3.8%; the published list's equities +2.4%; all eight published names +8.3%; the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +2.0%. Closes through 2026-10-16.
The earlier frozen index, published in Issues I to V, remains on record: +4.14% against QQQ +1.11% as of August 14, 2026.
Sources
Jordi Visser weekly class, Oct 18, 2026: "The AI Bubble Didn’t Pop. Hedge Fund Leverage Did." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB_-4pN1dsA 22V Research companion note, Oct 18, 2026: https://22vresearch.com/2026/10/18/the-ai-bubble-didnt-pop-hedge-fund-leverage-did/ Micron fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results (customer deposits, Q1 FY2027 guide): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000723125/000072312526000018/a2026q4ex991-pressrelease.htm NVIDIA second-quarter fiscal 2027 results and guide: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045810/000104581026000073/q2fy27pr.htm ASML third-quarter 2026 results, Oct 14, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000937966/000162828026065813/pressreleasefinancialresul.htm TSMC third-quarter 2026 results: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000726/a3q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm Prices: Nasdaq historical closes, Friday, Oct 16, 2026; Bitcoin and Ether Coinbase UTC daily close. Since-Issue-I returns from Jul 20, 2026, equal-weight price return. Federal Reserve October 2026 calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm Census economic indicator calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview-2026.html NAR release schedule: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/NAR-Releases-2026-Statistical-News-Release-Schedule Meta third-quarter 2026 results notice: https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-to-Announce-Third-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx Amazon third-quarter 2026 results notice: https://www.aboutamazon.com/md/news/company-news/amazon-earnings-q3-2026-report Microsoft earnings date: https://finviz.com/news/400058/microsoft-announces-quarterly-earnings-release-date