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Illustration of the Republican Party of Florida's three-story red-brick headquarters on East Jefferson Street in Tallahassee at golden hour, its green arched entrance awning framed by live oaks hung with Spanish moss.
The Florida GOP's Tallahassee headquarters, where Donalds' PAC has sent $35 million. · Illustration: Old Florida Money, adapted from “The George Bush Republican Center, Tallahassee” by Michael Rivera (CC BY-SA 4.0), via Wikimedia Commons; this illustration is shared under CC BY-SA 4.0. (source, licence)

Politics · Statewide

Byron Donalds’ PAC has now sent Florida’s GOP $35 million, $4 million of it this month

Through Oct. 9, Donalds’ PAC had spent $99.6M by our sum of state records, including $35M to the Republican Party of Florida in 11 payments ($4M on Oct. 5). With his campaign account he has spent $110.7M, which Florida Politics puts at “more than $110 million.” GEO Group and Fighting for Florida’s Families each gave the PAC $1M in the week ended Oct. 9. Polls reported Oct. 13 run from Donalds up 11 to a tie (Division of Elections; Florida Politics; Newsweek). The Seminole Tribe, which has given Donalds’ PAC $5.5M, is suing DraftKings, whose subsidiary gave the PAC $500,000.

Sources: Florida Division of Elections (PAC and campaign contribution and expenditure line items through Oct. 9, re-read Oct. 18; 2026 reporting calendar; matching-funds table through Oct. 16); Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research; James Madison Institute / Targoz Market Research; The Floridian; CBS12; Florida Bulldog; Hoodline; Tribal Business News; Covers; News Service of Florida via Tallahassee Reports, via WPEC and via WLRN; CBS Miami; CNN; The Real Deal; NBC 6 South Florida; Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research; Casino.org; Tampa Bay Times; Florida Politics; Florida Phoenix via Florida Politics; WLRN / WUSF; WUSF; SEC EDGAR; NBC News; Deadspin; Betting News; Miami Dolphins; Dream Finders Homes; MLB.com; Newsweek; Tampa Bay Times / PolitiFact

On this page
  1. The money
  2. Public matching money
  3. The Miccosukee check
  4. How it works
  5. What could still stop it
  6. Why it matters across Florida
  7. What to watch
  8. Correction
  9. Sources

Byron Donalds is not leading Florida’s governor money race with a stump speech. He is leading it with a PAC that can still spend after the campaign account is spent down, and with a donor class that now has a count.

A Tampa Bay Times analysis found at least 18 billionaires have given in the governor’s race, and 17 of them gave to Donalds, including Miami hedge fund manager Ken Griffin and investor Jeff Yass. The 17 account for $23.3 million of Donalds’ money, 18% of his total. As of Sept. 18, Jolly had received money from one billionaire, J.B. Pritzker, who gave $50,000 (Tampa Bay Times); on Oct. 1 Jolly’s Florida 2026 PAC took $1,000,000 from Henry Laufer of Manalapan (Division of Elections). On Nov. 3 it is Donalds and running mate state Sen. Bryan Ávila against Democrat David Jolly and Gwen Graham (Florida Politics). As of Sept. 25, Donalds had raised $134.4 million and spent $91.7 million in his campaign account and political committee combined, and Jolly had raised $16.7 million and spent $11.2 million (News Service of Florida via Tallahassee Reports; CBS Miami carries the same wire); our sums of state records through Oct. 9 follow below. Florida Politics now reports that in the week ending Oct. 9 Donalds “raised more than $5.9 million between his political committee and his campaign account, with the GEO Group and Fighting for Florida’s Families chipping in $1 million each,” that “He has raised more than $146 million this cycle,” and that “He’s already spent more than $110 million, including more than $6.9 million in the week in question”; Jolly raised more than $1.97 million that week, $1,008,073 of it hard money, after about $2.7 million the week before, his best of the cycle (Florida Politics, Oct. 17). Our sums of state records for Oct. 3 to 9 agree: $5,974,070.08 raised and $6,950,400.08 spent by Donalds’ PAC and governor account together, and $1,971,976.80 raised by Jolly’s campaign and Florida 2026 committee (Division of Elections; our arithmetic). The week before, Sept. 26 to Oct. 2, our sums of state records match Jolly’s side: $2,787,374.67 across his campaign and his Florida 2026 committee, or $2,714,680.11 without in-kind gifts; the Donalds PAC took in $5,341,338.42 that week (Division of Elections; our arithmetic). Our Oct. 15 re-read of Donalds’ own campaign account shows $576,708.59 in contributions that week, which with the PAC’s $5,341,338.42 makes $5,918,047.01, in line with Florida Politics’ nearly $6 million; his overall total rests on Florida Politics (Division of Elections; our arithmetic). CNN, citing AdImpact, reports Jolly and Democrats had bought just $3 million of Florida airtime as of Oct. 1, and that by mid-September Jolly’s committee had 18 donations of six figures or more to more than 300 for Donalds’ (CNN). The Times put Donalds at $131 million as of Sept. 18, roughly eight times Jolly’s $16 million; more than $39 million, about 30%, came from outside Florida, against 19% for Jolly (Tampa Bay Times).

The named check register reads from primary records. Ken Griffin of Citadel wrote $10,000,000 to Friends of Byron Donalds on July 17, 2026, his only Donalds line of $100,000 or more (Division of Elections; Florida Politics; NBC). The Seminole Tribe of Florida has given $5.5M in five checks, the latest $1.5M on Sept. 9, plus $19,956 in kind from Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino (DOE; Florida Politics); the Times also counts $5.5 million from the Tribe (Tampa Bay Times). Miami Dolphins owner Stephen M. Ross gave $1,000,000 on Sept. 18 (DOE; Miami Dolphins). Brian Colleran of Chagrin Falls, Ohio, gave $1,000,000 on Sept. 23 (DOE; Florida Politics). Two more seven-figure checks came in the week to Oct. 9: Fighting for Florida’s Families of Miami, $1,000,000 on Oct. 6, and The GEO Group Inc. of Boca Raton, $1,000,000 on Oct. 8, now the newest; the PAC carries 22 contributions of $1M or more, totaling $38,500,000, through Oct. 9 (DOE; Florida Politics; see the story on GEO’s check). That week’s other large checks, of 89 totaling $5,172,076.00: $500,000 from a contributor filed as Eric Schmidt of Hollywood, Calif., on Oct. 9; $500,000 from the Republican State Leadership Committee on Oct. 9; $250,000 from Ian MacKechnie of Tampa on Oct. 5; and $200,000 from PMI US Corporate Services on Oct. 8 (DOE; our sum). None of the 119 contributions reported from Sept. 26 to Oct. 2 reached $1M; the largest were $500,000 each from GOPAC Election Fund and United Group Underwriters LLC of Miami Gardens (DOE). That is a cast, not a vibe.

Your stake: the Seminole compact paid Florida $1.04 billion of revenue share from all tribal gaming in the year ended June 30, money state economists count toward the General Revenue Fund (Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research), payments the News Service of Florida describes as ones “the Tribe could suspend if its monopoly on sports betting is punctured” (News Service of Florida via WLRN). Both sides of the Tribe’s new lawsuit against DraftKings have paid the Donalds PAC (Division of Elections).

The money

The Division of Elections ledger now runs through Oct. 9. Through Oct. 2, Friends of Byron Donalds PAC had $125,830,698.70 received in 2,448 lines and $93,594,679.43 spent in 1,443 lines. From Oct. 3 to 9 it reported 89 contributions totaling $5,172,076.00 and 21 expenditures totaling $6,054,276.25, which puts it at $131,002,774.70 received in 2,537 lines, of which $129,109,659.58 was checks, $1,321,369.81 interest, $627,745.31 in kind and minus $56,000 in refunds, and $99,648,955.68 spent in 1,464 lines (DOE; our sums of DOE lines). The week’s two biggest payments were $4,000,000 to the Republican Party of Florida on Oct. 5 and $2,000,000 to Push Digital LLC of Charleston, S.C., for placed media on Oct. 7 (DOE). From Sept. 26 to Oct. 2, the week before, it had reported 119 contributions totaling $5,341,338.42 and 32 expenditures totaling $11,137,302.85 (DOE; our sums). That week’s other large checks: A Stronger Florida and Fighting for Florida’s Families, $300,000 each; United States Sugar Corporation PAC, the Republican State Leadership Committee, Fla. C of C Alliance and Associated Industries for Florida’s Future, $250,000 each; Mosaic Global Sales, $150,000; MasTec, $125,000; and PCI Gaming Authority of Atmore, Ala., $50,000 (DOE). The Real Deal, from the same data, puts it at $82.5 million spent, “or 68 percent of his bankroll,” and says fundraising “surged to $17.5 million in September, the strongest month in the data” (The Real Deal); our sum of the PAC’s receipts from Sept. 1 to 25 is $17,466,926.83, and with all of September now filed, September receipts total $22,436,623.10 (DOE; our sums). The PAC spent $18,953,687 in July, $25,663,963 in August, $28,959,041 in all of September and $6,173,668 from Oct. 1 to 9 (DOE; our sums). Donalds’ governor campaign account received $16,507,044.35 and spent $9,193,590.93 through Sept. 25; from Sept. 26 to Oct. 2 it reported 2,066 contributions totaling $576,708.59 and 51 expenditures totaling $1,009,022.98, the largest $687,242.70 to Smart Media Group LLC for placed media, which put it at $17,083,752.94 received and $10,202,613.91 spent through Oct. 2. From Oct. 3 to 9 it reported 1,727 contributions totaling $801,994.08 and 58 expenditures totaling $896,123.83, the largest $747,574.80 to Smart Media Group LLC for placed media on Oct. 5, which puts it at $17,885,747.02 received and $11,098,737.74 spent through Oct. 9 (DOE; our sums, governor account only, re-read Oct. 18). The campaign has also received more than $1.8M of staffing and consulting help, mostly from the Republican Party of Florida (News Service of Florida via CBS12). In the week ending Sept. 4 alone, Donalds spent more than $9M across both accounts (Florida Politics).

Where the PAC money went: $38,147,340 to Del Cielo Media in 14 payments, the last on Aug. 31, and $4,645,990 to Push Digital in 12, the newest $2,000,000 on Oct. 7, $42,793,330 in all; $35,005,621.21 in 11 payments to the Republican Party of Florida, including $24,000,000 in September ($5,000,000 on Sept. 4, $5,000,000 on Sept. 14, $6,000,000 on Sept. 21 and $8,000,000 on Sept. 28) and $4,000,000 on Oct. 5; $2,670,000 to Blitz Canvassing LLC of Denver for canvassing and $220,200 to Fabrizio Lee & Associates of Fort Lauderdale for strategy consulting, both Sept. 29; and $173,439.68 on events at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club (DOE; our sums). The Real Deal, reporting before the Sept. 28 payment, counted $40.8 million to the two media firms, more than $22 million to the party and more than $173,000 at Mar-a-Lago. It also found real estate and adjacent industries gave about 33 percent of Donalds’ $120.5 million, against 11 percent of the $7.3 million raised by Jolly’s Florida 2026 PAC (The Real Deal).

Donalds once said it takes at least $80M to win a Florida governor’s race (Florida Politics). He has cleared that on raising, “more than $146 million this cycle” (Florida Politics, Oct. 17), and on spending: our sum of the two accounts’ Division of Elections spending lines through Oct. 9, re-read Oct. 18, is $110,747,693.42, of which the PAC’s part is $99,648,955.68, in line with Florida Politics’ “more than $110 million” (DOE; our arithmetic; Florida Politics). Two-thirds of his money came from corporations, political committees and billionaires who gave at least $10,000; for Jolly the rate was near 8% (Tampa Bay Times).

Griffin did not stop at the governor’s race. Division of Elections records show he gave $3,000,000 each to the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee on Aug. 6, 2026, after $1,000,000 each in December 2025 and $4,000,000 each on July 30, 2024 (DOE).

Sports betting is a $2.25M rail. The Sports Betting Alliance, the DraftKings / FanDuel / Fanatics / BetMGM / bet365 trade group, gave $1.25M: $250,000 on March 30 and $1,000,000 on Aug. 13 (DOE; Florida Politics). FanDuel Inc. and DK Crown Holdings Inc. each gave $500,000 on Dec. 23, 2025, both filed as daily fantasy sports (DOE; our sum). DK Crown Holdings Inc. is a wholly owned DraftKings subsidiary (SEC filing), and the Times reports “half a million each from DraftKings and FanDuel” (Tampa Bay Times). DK Crown also gave Friends of James Uthmeier $25,000 on April 15, 2025, $525,000 statewide since 2025; the Seminole Tribe gave the same Uthmeier committee $25,000 on March 11, 2025 and $25,000 on Nov. 13, 2025, and DraftKings Inc. itself shows one $320.76 in-kind catering line to the Donalds PAC on March 26, 2026 (DOE). On Oct. 8 the Tribe sued DraftKings, CEO Jason Robins and GUS III LLC, which operates as DraftKings Predictions, in Broward County circuit court, a state court, alleging DraftKings runs an illegal sports betting business in Florida; DK Crown is not a defendant, and DraftKings says it remains “confident in our legal position” (News Service of Florida via WLRN; Tribal Business News; Covers; see the DraftKings story). DeSantis said the Tribe was “given the purview on sports betting” and that “Ultimately, you are going to see federal decisions, probably at appeals and higher” (News Service of Florida via WLRN). The Tribe’s statewide giving since Jan. 1, 2025 totals $12,006,500 in 354 lines, the newest dated Oct. 9, 46% of it to the Donalds PAC, plus $1,750,000 to the Republican Party of Florida, $1,000,000 each to the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and Friends of Wilton Simpson, and $200,000 to the Florida Democratic Party (DOE; our sum). The Times says the gaming and casino sector accounted for roughly 10% of all large-dollar donations (Tampa Bay Times). Sweepstakes operator VGW Luckyland gave $600,000, and $500,000 of it is dated after Deadspin reported on Aug. 21 that Attorney General James Uthmeier had filed suits targeting Stake.us and VGW’s Chumba Casino, LuckyLand Slots, and Global Poker (DOE; Deadspin). Uthmeier has since told Google, Meta, Reddit, Snap, and TikTok to stop promoting sweepstakes casinos to Floridians, with responses due Oct. 23 (Betting News).

Immigration detention is a rail too. The GEO Group of Boca Raton has given $3.5M in four checks, the latest $1,000,000 on Oct. 8, six days after it sold its Adelanto, Calif., ICE complex to the federal government; no record ties any check to the sale (DOE; Florida Politics; see the story on GEO’s check). Fighting for Florida’s Families has given $1,450,000 in five checks, the largest $1,000,000 on Oct. 6 (DOE; our sum). WUSF reported Sept. 30 that the Florida Division of Emergency Management then owed vendors more than $417M for immigration enforcement, including nearly $40M to GEO|CDR Baker LLC. CDR CEO Carlos Duart and three CDR entities gave Friends of Byron Donalds more than $620,000 combined, and none of the owed vendors that gave to Donalds has given to Jolly (WUSF).

The rest of the oversized list checks against Division of Elections line items: Jeff Yass $7.5M, Club for Growth Action Florida $3.75M, GOPAC Election Fund $3M in six $500,000 checks, the latest Sept. 29, Richard Uihlein $2M, Thomas Peterffy $1.2M, Stephen A. Wynn $1M, NextEra Energy Capital Holdings $1M, Morgan & Morgan $1M on Aug. 26, The People Versus The Powerful PAC of San Rafael, Calif., $1M on May 31, and seven DeVos family checks totaling $1M on Sept. 14 (DOE). Yass’s checks of $500,000 or more since 2025 also include $3.5M to CFG Action Florida (DOE). Florida Right Solutions of Tallahassee gave the PAC $100,000 on June 29, and the PAC recorded $25,000 the same day from “PIONTE RESORT LLC,” at the Harvey, La., address of the Destin land seller’s companies (DOE; see the Destin story). On Sept. 30, AFC Victory Fund, the political arm of the school-choice group Betsy DeVos once chaired, endorsed Donalds without announcing any spending (Florida Politics). Edition cross-link: Dream Finders Homes, founded by Rays managing partner and co-chair Patrick Zalupski, gave $200,000 (DOE; Dream Finders Homes; MLB.com).

Griffin’s check is the UHNW patronage signal: day-one Tallahassee access priced in public. The sports-betting checks are the sector signal: operators paying for a governor who will live inside gambling, tribal compact, and legislative fights. Yass money and Club for Growth money are the national ideologue/finance rails. Seminole money is the compact rail. Peterffy, Wynn, and Ross are Florida-and-hospitality UHNW rails. NextEra and GEO are corporate-regulated rails. Readers who only watch candidate-account totals miss the spend that still decides November.

Who pays, who benefits

WhoPays or benefitsDollarVehicleSource
Byron DonaldsBenefitsGovernor account $17,885,747.02 received, $11,098,737.74 spent (Oct. 9, our DOE sums, re-read Oct. 18); $110,747,693.42 spent with the PAC (Oct. 9, our sum); “more than $146 million” raised this cycle (Florida Politics, Oct. 17); $1,131,323.66 state match through the Oct. 16 distributionCandidate accountDOE; Florida Politics; Florida Department of State
Friends of Byron Donalds PACWar chestDOE ledger $131,002,774.70 received and $99,648,955.68 spent through Oct. 9 (our sums)Florida PCDOE
Republican Party of FloridaPaid by the PAC$35,005,621.21 in 11 payments, $24,000,000 of it in September and $4,000,000 on Oct. 5Party transfersDOE
Blitz Canvassing LLC; Fabrizio Lee & AssociatesPaid by the PAC$2,670,000 for canvassing; $220,200 for strategy consulting (Sept. 29)Field and consulting vendorsDOE
Del Cielo Media; Push DigitalPaid by the PAC$38,147,340; $4,645,990 (newest $2,000,000 on Oct. 7)Media and digital vendorsDOE; The Real Deal
17 billionaires (Tampa Bay Times count)Pay$23.3M, 18% of Donalds’ totalCampaign and PACTampa Bay Times
Ken Griffin (Citadel)Pays$10,000,000 to the PAC on July 17, 2026; $3,000,000 each to the Senate and House GOP campaign committees on Aug. 6, 2026PAC; legislative committeesDOE; FP; NBC Dixon
Seminole Tribe of FloridaPays; sued DraftKings Oct. 8$5.5M in five checks (latest $1.5M Sept. 9) plus $19,956 in kind: $5,519,956; $12,006,500 statewide since 2025 (through Oct. 9)PACDOE; Tampa Bay Times; NSF via WLRN
Sports Betting Alliance; FanDuel; DK Crown Holdings (DraftKings subsidiary)Pays$1.25M; $500,000; $500,000: $2.25M (DK Crown also $25,000 to Friends of James Uthmeier)PACDOE; SEC
VGW LuckylandPays$600,000; $500,000 dated after the Aug. 21 suit reportPACDOE; Deadspin
Jeff YassPays$7.5MPACDOE
Club for Growth Action FloridaPays$3,750,000PACDOE
GEO Group Inc.Pays$3.5M in four checks (latest $1M Oct. 8, the newest seven-figure check)PACDOE; Florida Politics
Fighting for Florida’s FamiliesPays$1,450,000 in five checks (largest $1M Oct. 6)PACDOE
GOPAC Election FundPays$3M in six checks (latest $500,000 Sept. 29)PACDOE
Richard UihleinPays$2MPACDOE
Thomas PeterffyPays$1.2MPACDOE
Stephen M. Ross (Miami Dolphins)Pays$1,000,000 on Sept. 18, 2026PACDOE; Miami Dolphins
Brian ColleranPays$1,000,000 on Sept. 23, 2026PACDOE; Florida Politics
Stephen A. WynnPays$1MPACDOE
NextEra Energy Capital HoldingsPays$1MPACDOE
Morgan & MorganPays$1,000,000 on Aug. 26, 2026PACDOE
The People Versus The Powerful PACPays$1,000,000 on May 31, 2026PACDOE
DeVos family (seven checks)Pays$1,000,000 on Sept. 14, 2026PACDOE
Dream Finders Homes (Patrick Zalupski)Pays$200,000PACDOE; Dream Finders Homes
Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of FloridaPays$10,000 on July 27, 2026PACDOE; WLRN / WUSF
David JollyOpponent“More than $21 million” raised and “more than $17 million” spent this cycle (Florida Politics, Oct. 17); $1,971,976.80 raised Oct. 3 to 9 (our sum); $2,805,218.54 state match through the Oct. 16 distribution; Florida 2026 PAC paid the Florida Democratic Party $3,250,000 Oct. 5 and 8Campaign + PCFlorida Politics; Florida Department of State; DOE

How we label: fact (Division of Elections line items; the state matching-funds table; period totals from Florida Politics, the Tampa Bay Times and News Service of Florida) · computed (our sums of DOE lines and NSF figures) · analysis (PAC = war chest)

Public matching money

The taxpayer match only sees the regulated face. Florida’s public campaign finance program matches the first $250 of each Florida resident’s contributions to a candidate; “Aggregate contributions from an individual in excess of $250 will be matched only up to $250” (s. 106.35), and money given to political committees supporting the candidates is not factored in (News Service of Florida via WPEC). Through the Oct. 16 distribution, the state has paid $4,745,365.41 in all, $4,136,325.42 of it in the governor’s race. Jolly has drawn $2,805,218.54 and Donalds $1,131,323.66; in the Oct. 16 distribution it was $223,106.74 to Jolly and $55,952.65 to Donalds, and Jay Collins has drawn $199,783.22 (Florida Department of State). In the attorney general’s race, Jose Javier Rodriguez has drawn $361,471.49 and James Uthmeier $173,514.56. CFO candidate Annette Taddeo has drawn $74,053.94; the Agriculture race has drawn nothing (Florida Department of State). The News Service of Florida headlined it Oct. 5: “State Matching Campaign Dollars Top $4 Million.”

The Miccosukee check

The Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida gave Friends of Byron Donalds PAC $10,000 on July 27, 2026 (DOE). The Tribe is part of a lawsuit against the state and federal administrations over the detention center dubbed “Alligator Alcatraz,” and state election data show it has not donated to Jolly; Chairman Talbert Cypress said the Tribe “works with leaders on both sides of the political aisle” on protecting the Everglades, Tribal sovereignty and community issues (WLRN / WUSF). The Tribe’s checks of $10,000 or more since Sept. 1, 2025 total $99,560 in six, to the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Republican Party of Florida, Conservatives for a Better Florida, Friends of Tom Leek, Fighting For A Better Miami-Dade and the Donalds PAC (DOE; our sum). On Oct. 6, the Everglades Trust, through CEO Anna Upton, endorsed Donalds in Key Biscayne, and Donalds pledged “we will finish the Everglades Restoration” (Florida Politics).

How it works

In Florida the campaign account is the regulated face; the affiliated PAC is the war chest. Contribution limits, disclosure timing, and spend rules differ. A reader who screenshots only the candidate committee cash-on-hand understates who can still buy media, mail, and field after a primary burn. Sports-betting cash is the sector tell. Citadel cash is the UHNW tell. Tribal and utility cash are the compact-and-regulation tells.

The compact rail has a live edge. DeSantis said in February the state was still “trying to get our mind around” whether Kalshi conflicts with the Seminole Tribe’s exclusive rights to sports betting, and as of Sept. 25, Kalshi traders gave Donalds a 77 percent chance on more than $2.2M in trading volume (Florida Politics).

What could still stop it

The money lead is not a lock, and the October polls run from a tie to comfortable. A Change Research poll conducted Oct. 8 to 10 has Donalds and Jolly tied at 47%, with 5% undecided and a modeled margin of error of 3.1 points; Jolly posted, “Our momentum keeps building,” and Newsweek says it reached out to Donalds’ campaign and reports no response (Newsweek). Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research released a poll on Oct. 13 with Donalds at 52% and Jolly at 41% among modeled likely voters, about 5% undecided; it interviewed 826 Florida adults Oct. 1 to 9 on an online non-probability panel, and Stetson gives a precision estimate of plus or minus 4.2 points, which it says is not a conventional margin of error (Stetson University; Florida Politics). Florida Politics called its 27% for Donalds among Black voters “an outlier in polling” (Florida Politics). A Donalds campaign internal poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates has him ahead 49% to 43%; the campaign did not release the full poll, and the PAC paid Fabrizio Lee & Associates $220,200 for strategy consulting on Sept. 29 (Florida Politics; DOE). A memo from Democratic consultants Christian Ulvert of EDGE Communications and Michael Worley and Martin Page of MDW Communications, an online poll of 2,351 likely voters Oct. 4 to 10 with a 2.8-point margin of error, has Donalds 46% and Jolly 44%, and Florida Politics says Decision Desk’s polling average has Donalds ahead by 5 points (Florida Politics). Before those, a James Madison Institute poll by Targoz Market Research, fielded Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 and released Oct. 9, has Donalds 52 percent and Jolly 42 among likely voters, with 3 percent for another candidate and 3 percent undecided, and Donalds 48 to 39 among all registered voters, whose stated margin of error is 2.77 points (JMI marginals; The Floridian; CBS12). CBS12, rounding up the recent polls, called them “positive for Republican candidates but not overwhelmingly so” (CBS12). A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics of 836 likely voters, Oct. 5 to 7, margin of error 3.4 points, has Donalds and Jolly at 45 percent each with 7 percent undecided; a YouGov poll of 3,813 likely voters, Sept. 28 to Oct. 5, has Donalds ahead 47 to 45; Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rate the race Lean Republican (Florida Politics). Mason-Dixon, for NBC 6 and Telemundo, polled 625 registered voters who all said they were likely to vote, Sept. 28 to Oct. 1, margin of error no more than 4 points: Donalds 48, Jolly 41, 10 percent undecided (NBC 6). Decision Desk HQ moved the race to toss-up, with its forecast at 60 percent for Donalds, down from 68 percent at the start of September; Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Florida to Lean Republican the same week (Florida Politics). Jolly launched a multimillion-dollar statewide ad buy on TV in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Jacksonville markets (Florida Politics). His newer ad, “Tough,” features retired Army Brig. Gen. Remo Butler and will run in Florida’s five biggest TV markets behind what the campaign says is a seven-figure buy, and another borrows Ronald Reagan’s question: “Ask yourself: Are you better off today under Donald Trump and Byron Donalds?” (Florida Politics). In the week ending Sept. 25 he raised just over $1.05 million across his campaign and committee, helped by more than $86,000 in state matching funds and $100,000 each from two law firms, Grossman Yaffa Cohen of Coral Gables and Swope, Rodante P.A. of Tampa; his committee stopped updating its online contributions after Aug. 27 (Florida Politics). There will be no debate: Jolly announced Sept. 20 that he would not debate Donalds this cycle and called the decision “final” (Florida Phoenix via Florida Politics). Donalds called Jolly a “fraud” who “knows that if he’s on a debate stage with me, that fraud will be exposed to the people of Florida, so he hides” (Florida Politics). In the GOP ticket’s Spanish-language ad, Ávila is the only one who speaks onscreen (Florida Politics). Two new Donalds ads followed: “Fighter” features Trump’s endorsement, and “Never” features DeSantis in a contrast ad arguing Jolly will raise taxes and “jack up” insurance costs; Donalds’ chief campaign strategist, Ryan Smith, said in a statement that Jolly “wants a new $1,000 hurricane tax” (Florida Politics). Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch notes the Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry traced that $1,000 figure to a study of a different bill (Florida Politics). PolitiFact rated Mostly False a Donalds ad saying Jolly was “in Washington, pressuring Congress to expand drilling off the Florida coast, over $5 million in billings” after Deepwater Horizon: the $5 million is his firm’s “total billings across all clients and issues,” though lobbying experts said attending a 2011 meeting where a drilling bill was discussed still counts as lobbying, and the ad “ignores Jolly’s congressional efforts to keep drilling away from Florida’s shores” (Tampa Bay Times / PolitiFact). Donalds rallied with U.S. Sen. Rick Scott in Largo on Oct. 8 (Hoodline). His running mate, Ávila, a captain in the Florida National Guard, stepped off the campaign trail on Tuesday, Oct. 6, to help with the response to Tropical Storm Isaias (The Floridian). Florida Bulldog reported Oct. 5 that Donalds’ congressional financial disclosure forms “have been significantly inaccurate entire time he’s been in Congress”; he filed amendments on June 4 and Aug. 13, one listing a CrossCountry Mortgage loan of $500,000 to $1 million, and within two days of his Feb. 25, 2025 declaration for governor his re-election campaign “disbursed $1.2 million to his state political committee.” Spokesman Gates McGavick said, “Byron Donalds is committed to disclosure” (Florida Bulldog).

Why it matters across Florida

The same PAC-versus-campaign split shows up in every major Florida race with a famous name and a donor class that buys policy access, from governor to mayor to cabinet. If you bank in Naples, Jacksonville, Miami, or Pensacola, the people writing these checks are the same class that shows up in zoning, gambling, insurance, and energy fights in your metro.

What to watch

The next Division of Elections report, covering Oct. 10 to 16; every Oct. 9 sum here can move with it (DOE). The Seminole Tribe’s suit against DraftKings in Broward. Vice President JD Vance rallied in Lakeland on Oct. 1 and called Donalds an “amazing warrior”; President Trump will hold an event in Fort Myers, in Donalds’ congressional district, on Oct. 23, with a venue to be announced, and RNC Chair Joe Gruters says Trump “loves Byron Donalds” (Florida Politics). Donalds, his wife Erika and running mate Bryan Ávila plan 50 stops in 38 counties on a bus tour whose set itinerary begins Monday, Oct. 19, in Plant City, The Villages and Jacksonville Beach (Florida Politics). Uthmeier’s Oct. 23 response deadline for the platforms on sweepstakes ads. The state’s $417M immigration-enforcement vendor backlog. The next matching-funds payments; the state’s table was last updated Oct. 16 (Florida Department of State). Nov. 3.

Correction

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story said the two campaigns could not agree on a debate schedule. Jolly announced Sept. 20 that he would not debate Donalds this cycle and called the decision final, and Florida Politics reported Oct. 4 that no debates are scheduled (Florida Phoenix via Florida Politics; Florida Politics).

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story said Stephen M. Ross’s $1,000,000 check of Sept. 18 carried the latest date in the state database. Ross’s check stands, but the database now runs through Sept. 25, and the newest $1M check is Brian Colleran’s, dated Sept. 23 (Florida Division of Elections).

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story said the PAC carried 19 contributions of $1M or more, totaling $35.5M. Through Sept. 25 it carries 20, totaling $36,500,000 (Florida Division of Elections).

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story said our sum of the PAC’s Division of Elections line items was $115.63M. That sum covers lines through Sept. 18; through Sept. 25 the ledger totals $120,489,360.28 (Florida Division of Elections).

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story said Donalds’ campaign and PAC had raised nearly $130M. Florida Politics reported Oct. 4 that he has raised more than $135 million, with contributions posted through Sept. 30; the Tampa Bay Times put the total at $131 million as of Sept. 18 (Florida Politics; Tampa Bay Times).

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story said that since July 17 Jolly had drawn $2.1M and Donalds $932,000 in state matching funds, and that the program had paid $3.7M this year. Through Oct. 2, the state has distributed $4,063,615.65, including $2,340,680.29 to Jolly and $1,036,482.85 to Donalds (Florida Department of State).

Correction, Oct. 6, 2026: An earlier version of this story identified DK Crown Holdings Inc. only as filed, as a daily fantasy sports company. DK Crown Holdings Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of DraftKings Inc. (SEC filing, DraftKings Inc. Exhibit 21.1).

Correction, Oct. 12, 2026: An earlier version of this story said Florida’s public campaign finance program matches contributions of $250 or less from individuals residing in Florida. The program matches the first $250 of each Florida resident’s contributions; aggregate contributions from an individual above $250 are matched up to $250 (s. 106.35, Florida Statutes).

Correction, Oct. 19, 2026: An earlier version of this story said the PAC spent $17,941,130 in September. That sum covered Sept. 1 to 25; with all of September filed, the PAC’s September spending totals $28,959,041.38 (Florida Division of Elections; our sum).

Correction, Oct. 19, 2026: An earlier version of this story said our sum of the PAC’s September receipts was $17,466,926.83. That sum covered Sept. 1 to 25; full September receipts total $22,436,623.10 (Florida Division of Elections; our sum).

Correction, Oct. 19, 2026: An earlier version of this story’s homepage summary said the newest governor’s-race polls ran from 11 points to 2. A St. Pete Polls survey taken Oct. 5 to 7 had Donalds and Jolly tied at 45%, and a Change Research poll taken Oct. 8 to 10 has them tied at 47%; the newest polls run from Donalds ahead by 11 to a tie (Florida Politics; Newsweek).

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  90. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/824726-poll-byron-donalds-up-6-over-david-jolly-with-3-weeks-until-election-day/
  91. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/824868-democratic-pollster-sees-governors-race-as-a-toss-up/
  92. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/824681-byron-donalds-leadership-ad/
  93. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/824996-david-jolly-better-off/
  94. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/10/13/donald-trump-buccaneers-nfl-tampa-midterm-election/
  95. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=1&CanFName=David&CanLName=Jolly&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&namesearch=2&cdatefrom=09/26/2026&rowlimit=20000&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  96. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Friends+of+Byron+Donalds+PAC&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&namesearch=2&cdatefrom=10/03/2026&rowlimit=2000&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  97. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/825466-nearly-2m-more-comes-in-for-david-jolly-against-byron-donalds-fundraising-juggernaut/
  98. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Friends+of+Byron+Donalds+PAC&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&namesearch=2&cdatefrom=10/03/2026&rowlimit=2000&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  99. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Friends+of+Byron+Donalds+PAC&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&namesearch=2&cdollar_minimum=1000000&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  100. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/expend.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Friends+of+Byron+Donalds+PAC&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&namesearch=1&clname=PUSH+DIGITAL&rowlimit=500&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  101. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Friends+of+Byron+Donalds+PAC&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit&namesearch=1&clname=GEO+GROUP
  102. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Friends+of+Byron+Donalds+PAC&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit&namesearch=1&clname=FIGHTING+FOR+FLORIDA
  103. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/expend.exe?election=All&search_on=4&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComName=Florida+2026&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&namesearch=2&cdatefrom=10/03/2026&rowlimit=2000&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  104. https://dos.fl.gov/elections/candidates-committees/campaign-finance/public-campaign-finance-matching-funds-program/public-campaign-finance-2026/
  105. https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe?election=All&search_on=1&CanNameSrch=2&office=All&party=All&ComNameSrch=2&committee=All&clname=SEMINOLE+TRIBE&namesearch=1&csort1=DAT&csort2=CAN&cdatefrom=01/01/2025&queryformat=1&Submit=Submit
  106. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/825229-donald-trump-to-hold-rally-in-fort-myers-ahead-of-midterms/
  107. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/825480-byron-bus/
  108. https://www.newsweek.com/byron-donalds-vs-david-jolly-latest-polls-show-two-very-different-results-12564501
  109. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2026/10/18/david-jolly-offshore-drilling-donalds-ad-lobbyist-politifact/

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