Ashley Moody keeps Florida's Senate seat as Democrats win the Senate, AP says

Moody won the seat in her own right

Sen. Ashley Moody, the Florida Republican appointed to Marco Rubio's seat in 2025, won it Tuesday over Democrat Angie Nixon, the Associated Press called. Her race was far closer than Rick Scott's re-election two years ago. A super PAC that Citadel founder Ken Griffin helped fund spent $10.3 million against Nixon, Florida Politics reported.

Why it matters: Moody returns to a Senate her party no longer runs. Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday night, the AP reported, and won the House too, by NPR's analysis of AP race calls. The AP's own story had not called the House; it said Democrats were getting closer to a House majority. Stock futures fell as traders speculated that Democrats would control Congress, CNBC reported.

The story so far: Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Moody in January 2025, after Rubio became secretary of state. She serves the last two years of the term Rubio won in 2022, and she must run again in 2028 for a full six-year term.

The call and the count

The AP declared Moody the winner at 8:34 p.m. Eastern. It called the race just after 8:30 p.m. with more than 90% of votes counted, and she then had 50.9% to Nixon's 48%, the Florida Phoenix reported. Florida Politics had her at 50.7% to 48.1% at that stage.

The state's unofficial count, read at 10:17 p.m., showed Moody with 4,192,030 votes, or 50.93%, and Nixon with 3,944,550, or 47.93%.

"What a night, what a win," Moody said, the Phoenix reported. "Well Florida chose freedom." Nixon said: "The war is not over." She added, "2028 is around the corner. Ashley Moody, you better get it right because we're coming for you."

Two years ago Scott won re-election by nearly 13 points over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Florida Politics reports. Rubio beat Democrat Val Demings by 16 points in 2022. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate seat in Florida since 2012, the AP says. At the close of registration, Florida had 13.7 million voters: 5.69 million Republicans and 4.15 million Democrats, Florida Politics reports.

The money on each side

Stronger Safer Nation, a super PAC organized to help Moody, spent $2.95 million on ads for her and $10.3 million against Nixon, Florida Politics reported. Its federal reports show about $13.5 million in the race as filed through Nov. 2, a little more than Florida Politics' two figures add up to. Its last report, filed Nov. 2, lists about $125,000 for text messages against Nixon and about $102,000 for texts backing Moody.

Griffin gave the PAC $2.5 million in May, Reuters and the Tampa Bay Times reported. Reuters said the PAC also got $6.7 million from a Florida state PAC. A strategist for the PAC told Reuters it was formed in 2025 solely to support Moody. A Tampa PAC, Florida Leads, gave it $500,000 on Oct. 9, its federal report shows.

On the Democratic side, American Bridge put $2.5 million into ads for Nixon, Florida Politics reported. New Deal for All, a Jacksonville group, ran ads against Moody and against Republican Senate candidates in Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi, its federal reports show. Its only donor on its report for Oct. 1 to 14 was Steve Pajcic, a Jacksonville trial lawyer at Pajcic & Pajcic, who gave $5.6 million on Oct. 13.

The candidates raised their own money too. Through Oct. 14, Nixon raised $11.3 million and Moody reported $14.5 million, Florida Politics reported. Moody's campaign said she also collected $7.14 million in a Victory Fund and $3.26 million in a Victory Committee. No record we read ties Griffin's money to any vote Moody cast.

Democrats take the Senate

In the House, Democrats won control, by NPR's analysis of AP race calls, updated at 1:10 a.m. Wednesday. The AP's own story, updated at 1:23 a.m., had not called the chamber. Earlier, at 10 p.m., CNBC's election desk projected that Democrats would win at least 225 House seats, more than the 218 needed for control, and MS NOW projected a Democratic House. Both were projections, not AP calls.

In the Senate, Democrats took seven seats Republicans held, NPR reported: North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Iowa and Maine. The AP named the winners. Roy Cooper took North Carolina's open seat, Annie Andrews beat Republican Darline Graham in South Carolina and Sherrod Brown beat Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio. James Talarico beat Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, Adam Hamilton ousted Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, Josh Turek beat Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Troy Jackson beat Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. Democrats also held New Hampshire's open seat, won by Rep. Chris Pappas, and Sen. Jon Ossoff won re-election in Georgia, the AP reported.

Those wins gave Democrats control of the Senate, the AP reported. Alaska's Senate race was still outstanding.

Markets moved first. At about 10 p.m., futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 1.1% lower and Nasdaq-100 futures 2% lower, as traders speculated that Democrats were headed for control of Congress, CNBC reported.

Three Florida House races were called, per CNBC citing AP projections. Democrats Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz won re-election, and Democrat Pia Dandiya won the 22nd District. Republicans Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Elvira Salazar held leads of less than 1 point soon after polls closed, CNBC reported.

California's Prop 40, a one-time 5% tax on billionaires in the state that OFM has followed through Larry Page's reported Coconut Grove purchases, had no result as of about 10:15 p.m. Eastern, CNBC reported.

What's next

What's next: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October's consumer price index on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. Moody's seat is on the ballot again in 2028.

Sources we read

The Associated Press via WBTV and WABI, Nov. 3. Florida Phoenix (Christine Sexton), Nov. 3, via Yahoo. Florida Politics (Jacob Ogles), Nov. 3. Florida Division of Elections, Election Watch, U.S. Senator, read 10:17 p.m. Nov. 3. Federal Election Commission: Stronger Safer Nation reports filed Oct. 22, Oct. 30 and Nov. 2; New Deal for All's report for Oct. 1 to 14. Reuters (Dawn Kopecki) via WHBL, Oct. 1. Tampa Bay Times, July 16. The Associated Press (Jill Colvin, Mary Clare Jalonick and Will Weissert) via the South Florida Sun Sentinel, updated 1:23 a.m. Nov. 4. NPR (Eric McDaniel and Claudia Grisales), updated 1:10 a.m. Nov. 4. CNBC live updates, Nov. 3. MS NOW live blog, Nov. 3. Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar.