DeSantis's map adds no GOP seats so far, and Republicans lose the two-thirds Florida House

The map gained nothing, and the House lost its two-thirds

Gov. Ron DeSantis drew a new Florida congressional map this spring that, the Associated Press wrote, was "intended to help Republicans pick up as many as four U.S. House seats." In Tuesday's unofficial count his party gained no seats from it, and Rep. Darren Soto, a Democrat, leads his still-uncalled Orlando-area race by about 1,500 votes. The same night, Republicans lost the two-thirds Florida House that let them override a governor's veto without Democratic votes.

Why it matters: Republicans hold a projected 70 of the 120 House seats. That is short of the two-thirds needed to override a veto or raise a state tax or fee, the state constitution says. Putting an amendment on the ballot takes 72 House votes, two more than Republicans hold, by our arithmetic.

The story so far: DeSantis released the new map on April 27. Lawmakers passed it in a special session he called, and he signed it May 4.

The map and its aim

Republicans already held 20 of Florida's 28 seats. NBC News reported the split could change to 24 to 4 under the plan.

The plan would get rid of the Tampa seat held by Rep. Kathy Castor and "appears to do away with" the seat held by Rep. Darren Soto of Orlando, NBC News reported. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report wrote that it "appears to target" Soto, Castor, Rep. Jared Moskowitz and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, ABC News reported.

DeSantis said "Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census" and that the map "more fairly represents the makeup of Florida today," ABC reported. He sent it to lawmakers on April 27. The House passed it 83-28 on April 29, and the Senate 21-17, with four Republicans voting no, Spectrum News reported. He signed it May 4, and posted: "Signed, sealed, and delivered."

The map redrew most of Florida's 28 districts. The News Service of Florida put the count at 21 in May and at 20 this week.

What the count shows

The state's unofficial count shows Republicans leading in 20 districts. If the tight results hold, the delegation stays at 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats, the News Service of Florida reported. DeSantis said Wednesday that Republicans held 20 seats before and after the election, WKMG reported.

Castor won the redrawn CD 14, 51% to 46%, over Mike Beltran, a former Republican state House member. President Donald Trump carried that district by about 10.5 points in 2024, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

Moskowitz "jumped districts after the map shifted," ran in CD 25 and beat Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, 51% to 47%. Wasserman Schultz ran in CD 20 and took 74% in the state count.

Pia Dandiya, a first-time candidate and former teacher who founded a school, won the open CD 22 over businessman Casey Askar, 52% to 48%. Trump carried that district by about 11 points, the Times reported. Rep. Lois Frankel, who held it, switched to CD 23.

The Tampa Bay Times wrote that the redraw had "threatened four of Florida's eight Democratic U.S. House seats."

The Orlando seat is still open

Soto leads Republican Dan Green in CD 9 by 1,477 votes, 50.26% to 49.74%, in the state's unofficial count. The AP had not called the race as of Wednesday afternoon, the Times reported.

State law orders a machine recount when two candidates are 0.5% or less apart, WKMG reported. On Thursday Soto's lead was about 0.52%. Counties must send their results to the state by close of business Friday, Nov. 6.

The redrawn District 9 is three times as big as the old one, Central Florida Public Media reported. It covers seven counties, from Lake Nona south to Lake Okeechobee. By Soto's estimate, Republicans outnumber Democrats there by about 6%.

The Florida House loses its two-thirds

The state's projection gives Republicans 70 of the 120 House seats and Democrats 50. A supermajority takes 80. Republicans went into Election Day with 82, WLRN and the News Service of Florida reported. The projection of 70 holds if a recount in House District 33 holds, the Florida Phoenix reported.

Democrats flipped 16 Republican-held House seats and one Senate seat, the Tallahassee Democrat reported. "The GOP can no longer simply ignore us," said Christine Hunschofsky, the House Democratic leader-designate.

In the Senate, the projection gives Republicans 25 of 39 counted seats, with District 39 vacant. A Senate supermajority takes 27. Republicans entered Election Day with 26, so they were already one short.

Without two-thirds, Republicans can no longer act alone to override a veto or waive legislative rules, WLRN reported. The Phoenix also listed placing amendments on the ballot. The constitution sets three-fifths of each house for that, which is 72 House votes, by our arithmetic.

What it means for the next governor's tax plans

A new or higher state tax or fee needs two-thirds of each house, the constitution says. Restoring a vetoed budget item also needs two-thirds, which is 80 House votes.

Gov.-elect Byron Donalds takes office Jan. 5. Before the vote he said: "Pass or fail, we're bringing this back anyway next year through the Tax and Budget Reform Commission." He spoke of "setting a goal for repealing homestead property taxes in Florida overall," WUSF reported.

That commission meets again in 2027. The governor picks 11 members, the House speaker seven and the Senate president seven. Two-thirds of the commission can put a tax revision on the ballot with no vote by lawmakers. Voters must still approve it with 60%, the constitution says. So the loss of the two-thirds House does not block that route.

Hunschofsky also spoke about the special session DeSantis wants on the property tax cut. "I am hoping that this will not be a special session. Those haven't always worked out so well," she said.

The national picture

Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, by an NPR analysis of race calls by the Associated Press. DeSantis said the landscape moved by up to 15 points. "It's hard to buck the trends," he said, WKMG reported. He called the night "the political equivalent of a meteor strike," Fox 35 reported, crediting the News Service of Florida.

Their side

DeSantis said a surge in Democratic turnout drove the results, WKMG reported. To justify the redraw he had said that "Florida has experienced 10 years' worth of population growth in like three."

Senate President-designate Jim Boyd, a Bradenton Republican, said families "are struggling with affordability," WLRN reported. We found no post-vote statement from House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison or the Republican Party of Florida.

"These districts aren't decided in Tallahassee," Soto said, Central Florida Public Media reported.

What's next

What's next: Counties send their results to the state by close of business Friday, Nov. 6, and a CD 9 recount follows only if the gap is 0.5% or less. Donalds takes office Tuesday, Jan. 5. The Legislature's regular session opens in March.

Sources we read

Florida Division of Elections: unofficial U.S. House results and the State Legislative Projection, read Nov. 5. The Florida Constitution, Articles III, VII and XI. WLRN and the Florida Phoenix (Mitch Perry), April 27. NBC News (Matt Dixon), April 27. ABC News, April 27. WUSF and the Associated Press, May 1. Spectrum News, April 29. CBS Miami and the News Service of Florida, May 4. The Tampa Bay Times (Shauna Muckle) via Yahoo, Nov. 4. NBC 6 and the News Service of Florida (Gray Rohrer), Nov. 4. WKMG, Nov. 4 and Nov. 5. Fox 35, crediting the News Service of Florida, Nov. 5. Central Florida Public Media, Nov. 4. WLRN and the News Service of Florida (Jim Turner), Nov. 3. The Florida Phoenix via Islander News, Nov. 4, and via Yahoo, Nov. 5. The Tallahassee Democrat via Yahoo, Nov. 5. WUSF, Sept. 1 and Nov. 5. NPR, updated Nov. 4.